Oscars 2026 Frontrunners and Contenders
Happy New Year. As hard as it might be to believe, 2026 is really here and we are all forced to slowly return to life after what was hopefully a long holiday. However, if you are in the trenches of awards season coverage—or, worse still, participating in the races(!)—there has been nary a moment to catch your breath.
Already we’ve had the Gotham Awards, the announcement of the New York Film Critics Circle’s winners, the same for the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, plus many, many more. And come Sunday night, the first major televised ceremony of the new year kicks off with the Critics Choice Awards, which will be shortly followed a week later by the Golden Globes, and eventually SAG, the other guilds, and one day long in the distance, the Academy Awards.
Tired yet? Or perhaps you’re just curious about what is in contention and what will have to be content simply with buzz that goes nowhere? If so, you’re in luck. We’ve rounded up below a list of the biggest players, as well as the most eye-catching also-rans. We’ve ranked them in order of those most likely to win (or be nominated) for Best Picture to the least, but in each film’s section we’ll note other major awards the movie is likely in the running for or might win. So sip one more glass of bubbly, kick back, and enjoy!

One Battle After Another
A bit like the year of Oppenheimer, it is almost unfair to rank these by likelihood of winning Best Picture since the top prize is close to a foregone conclusion. One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson’s subversive epic in the era of Trump and the darling of every major critics group to date, appears destined to carry on winning Best Picture at each ceremony between now and Oscar night.
Admittedly most years we tend to draw a distinction between the films that critics fall behind and those chosen by folks who actually work in the film industry. For example last year we were confident The Brutalist hype would fade, albeit we wrongfully leaned toward Conclave instead of Anora picking up steam as the dark horse alternative. However, the perceived frontrunner this year isn’t a nihilistic indie indictment of American capitalism; it is a film produced by that very market as a commercial spectacle with breakneck action and Hollywood royalty in the cast bill, even if the film is fairly dissident in its own politics.
Industry watchers will continue to debate for years to come whether WB in the long run made money on this pricy gamble (the pic cost a reported $135 million to make, sans marketing or Oscar campaigning, and grossed $205 million worldwide), but it still played in front of a healthy general audience and will likely continue doing so in the streaming era. It also is a throwback to the type of movies that won Best Picture in the ‘90s: splashy, star-led spectacles intended for adult audiences who like car chases and entertainment in their introspective character studies lamenting the racist oligarchical hegemony secretly oppressing American life.
OBAA also has significant awards season narrative hype that you can bet is already being pursued/exploited by talented PR machines. The first is that writer-director PTA is due after never winning a single statue for Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, or Phantom Thread. Additionally, the movie can be viewed as a possible last hurrah for Warner Bros., the auteur studio of yore, basking in a golden year before it is probably swallowed whole by Netflix.
All of which makes it a shoo-in for Best Picture and likely Best Director. We’d also say Leonardo DiCaprio is the frontrunner for Best Actor, though that is less than a done deal, as is Benicio del Toro for Best Supporting Actor where one of his biggest competitors might just be fellow Oscar-darling Sean Penn for the same movie. Meanwhile Teyana Taylor is the likely frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. We expect it to likewise be competitive in, if not win, Oscars for Cinematography, Editing, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Also kudos to Chase Infiniti for sticking to her guns and campaigning rightfully as Lead Actress. She’ll get an Oscar nomination in the correct category for it.

Hamnet
If one must select a plausible possible dark horse narrative to unseat OBAA, then Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet is probably a decent bet. Certainly more reserved and elegiac than PTA’s highbrow actioner, Hamnet also checks a lot of boxes for Oscar voters. After all, the same body also in the ‘90s famously snubbed the populist choice of Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan for another movie about William Shakespeare in Love. Granted, that was a different time and and different Academy, as indicated by the fact Spielberg produced Hamnet.
The reason we think this theoretically could get some greater industry love, however, is Zhao is already a rightful favorite within the business, and we truthfully think that despite the critics throwing all their flowers toward Rose Byrne (including myself as a CCA member), Jessie Buckley still is going to walk home with the Best Actress Oscar come March. It is a tremendous, career-defining essay of a mother in grief learning to live again through the power of art, and it’s so good that it won Hamnet the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, one of the best indicators of Oscars’ taste on the festival circuit. Previous TIFF audience winners include The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and La La Land. And the last time a TIFF darling won the Oscar for Best Picture? Another Zhao picture: Nomadland.
Also expect nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay (which it could win), Score, Costumes, Production Design, and probably Paul Mescal for Best Supporting Actor, although that’s less locked. Zhao might likewise be the most likely to upset Anderson in Best Director.

Sentimental Value
Perhaps the most noticeable thing about the modern Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in the 2020s is how much more international its voting body and tastes have become—at least when it comes to favoring European cinema. Parasite becoming the first foreign-language film to win Best Picture in February 2020 is the most striking example of this, but look also to other Best Picture nominees that 10 years ago would’ve seemed unthinkable: Anatomy of a Fall, Triangle of Sadness, and even French filmmaker Coralie Fargeat’s horror Cannes darling, The Substance.
Joachim Trier’s exquisite Cannes Grand Prix winner, Sentimental Value, is poised to continue that tradition, and we suppose if there is a counter-narrative of something unseating OBAA, Sentimental Value might have the second most persuasive one. The international quarters of the Academy’s acting branches could rally behind this film for Best Picture, although another international Cannes favorite complicates that narrative (scroll further down for more). But this really is an actor’s and writer’s film, and the former is the largest branch in the AMPAS.
For evidence, expect Sentimental to pick up nominations for every major performance in the film: Renate Reinsve for Best Actress (which she can win, although the competition of Byrne and Buckley is fierce), Stellan Skarsgård for Best Supporting Actor (ditto), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Best Supporting Actress (trippo?), and Elle Fanning for the same category (it will be an honor just to be nominated). The film will also certainly be nominated for Best Director, Original Screenplay (which I suspect it might win), and Best International Film (which it will definitely win). On paper it’s a long-shot for the top prize given both its Scandinavian nature and languages, as well its subtlety. But in a decade where Anora can be a Best Picture winner, we’d argue there is something about this material and its subject matter of artists and families that appeals innately to general Academy interests.

Marty Supreme
If we might allow for one more dark horse with a shot at gaining steam for a late-arrival upset, folks should not sleep on Marty Supreme. Easily one of the best movies of the year, it is also now the one with a feel-good Cinderella story in the holiday season box office. While no Avatar, this Timothée Chalamet-led indie still grossed an impressive $27 million over the long Christmas weekend based purely on the strength of Chalamet’s popularity, its word-of-mouth, and an inventive marketing campaign rolled out by A24 and the star.
Oscar voters love a winner, and here’s one that is also incredibly satisfying. So maybe an irrepressible winner’s narrative about an irrepressible ping-pong player could lead to it gathering momentum in the Best Picture race? But, truthfully, we suspect that narrative will mostly help it in securing Chalamet his first Oscar over his mentor DiCaprio, and perhaps get director Josh Safdie his first Oscar nomination, as Safdie is currently on the bubble according to odds-makers. The film also should gain nominations for Original Screenplay, Editing, Casting, and if there’s any justice, Best Original Score.

Sinners
We admit putting Sinners this far down on a Best Picture-probability ranking is risky. Not only will Sinners possibly be the most popular and widely seen movie nominated for Best Picture this year—at least barring a debatable nod for Avatar 3—but it’s also one that has everything going for it that we ascribe to One Battle After Another: a splashy ensemble led by a bonafide movie star in Michael B. Jordan; a mixture of serious themes (in this case America’s eternal history with violence and race, particularly in the South) with audience friendly genre storytelling; and it’s even from that same storied studio about to be subsumed by a streaming service.
However, its genre trappings are horror, and no matter how much the voting pool changes at the AMPAS, they seem to be permanently overpopulated by stuffed shirts who never give horror its due. Look to last year at the many Oscar voters who anonymously admitted to not watching or being repulsed by The Substance—in the same year that the Academy failed to nominate the equally exquisite vampire film Nosferatu for anything beyond Cinematography. The first and last horror movie to win Best Picture was Silence of the Lambs more than 30 years ago, and that movie didn’t touch the third rail of American racism told from a genuinely Black perspective.
Still, Sinners will and should be nominated for Best Picture, it better see Ryan Coogler nominated for Best Director, and it should lead Jordan to his first Oscar nod. We also think it might very well win for Best Original Screenplay (though we might give the edge to Sentimental Value), Cinematography, Score, Casting, and possibly Editing. This possibility of winning for scripting operates on the curious tradition of Oscar voters giving Screenplay wins to the movies deemed too strange for Best Picture. Hmph.

It Was Just an Accident
Here we have the other international film likely to find its way floating up to the Best Picture race: It Was Just an Accident. The film is an act of literal bravery since Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi made this on the streets of Tehran under the nose of an authoritarian and theocratic regime that presumably would detest the picture’s portrait of everyday citizens haunted by their wrongful imprisonment and torture by the Revolutionary Guard. It is that experience which leads the film’s central characters to kidnap a man who might have been their torturer—although it’s unclear since they were all blindfolded and are basing their suspicions on what they think is the sound of his voice.
While the film makes for a potent thriller, we suspect the real-life act of bravado filmmaking has more than a little to do with it being this year’s Palme d’Or winner at Cannes. And in the 2020s a Palme win increasingly means an invitation to the Oscars Best Picture dance. Nonetheless, we also suspect the movie’s heavy-handed resolution and the fact Sentimental Value will be getting the lion’s share of international cinema votes means this movie’s invite will be of the token variety.

Frankenstein
Another movie we are fairly confident will be nominated for Best Picture, even if it has little chance of winning, is Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. Admittedly the Academy has a problem with horror movies, as indicated when only one got in last year and the similarly Victorian era-set Nosferatu got snubbed. But then, del Toro’s Frankenstein is not a horror movie; it’s a tragic drama from one of the masters who’s already in the Academy’s club after winning Best Picture and Director for The Shape of Water, and seeing major nominations in the past for Pan’s Labyrinth and the divisive (and terrific) Nightmare Alley.
Best Picture should be a lock, and if there’s any justice in the world Jacob Elordi’s sensitive portrayal of the Creature will also land him in the Best Supporting Actor race, although that is more on the bubble. The film might pick up a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination too, but honestly we have our doubts. Where the movie should clean up is in technical, below-the-line categories where we place Frankenstein as the frontrunner to beat in Best Production Design, Best Costumes, and Best Production Design.

Train Dreams
Another Netflix release we suspect will probably get into the Best Picture race is Clint Bentley’s sensitive ode to the working men who built this country, Train Dreams. A quiet and introspective film, Train Dreams features lovely paeans to the wilderness of North America and the industrial revolution technology which conquered it. That beatific framing is also why we suspect it’s a lock for a nomination in Best Cinematography, although it will never win when contrasted with the flashy IMAX and VistaVision work of Sinners and OBAA. There is also a narrative where Joel Edgerton gets into the fifth slot of the Best Actor race, but we have our doubts.

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Now we come to the movies on bubble of getting into the Best Picture race. In fact, there is an argument to be made that it is tone deaf to include Avatar: Fire and Ash in our ninth slot since the film has been largely snubbed and ignored by most critics groups so far this awards season, even the fairly populist and star-friendly Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes.
But while the Academy might be most populated by actors, it is still dominated by producers, as indicated by the fact that the Producers Guild award remains the best bellwether for determining what will win Best Picture on Oscar night. And the producers are going to celebrate a darling of their branch, James Cameron, producing and directing four films in a row that will have crossed $1.5 billion in theaters. At least. In a time when moviegoing feels increasingly endangered, Cameron’s apparent financial invulnerability will continue to make him an industry fave, including on Oscar night. Otherwise don’t expect too much for this film beyond the obvious win for Best Visual Effects and probably a nomination for Best Sound.

Bugonia
Another film on the bubble that we think is likely the one to squeak into that 10th nomination slot is Bugonia. While the movie is mean, weird, and kind of like if a Twilight Zone episode was made by, say, Yorgos Lanthimos, it is still nonetheless a Lanthimos joint that stars Emma Stone. And when you ignore their weird little side project last year, Kinds of Kindness, the Academy has been fully onboard with their previous collaborations: both The Favourite and Poor Things scored Best Picture nominations, as well as nods for Stone, who won for Poor Things (whilst her co-star Olivia Colman won for Favourite).
Bugonia is an odder, crueler movie than either of those, so we don’t think it will mark Stone’s third Oscar win so soon after Poor Things and La La Land inside of a decade. But we have a hunch Stone will beat the doubters and pick up the fourth or fifth nomination for Best Actress, making her the most nominated Millennial performer to date with five acting nominations before she’s 40. The film also will likely get a nod for Best Adapted Screenplay for Will Tracy.

Wicked: For Good
A bit like predicting Avatar: Fire and Ash getting in, suggesting that Wicked: For Good is even on the bubble as a movie that might displace either Avatar or Bugonia for one of the bottom two slots is a risk because, frankly, Wicked: For Good isn’t very good. It’s in fact so “mid” that its quality has lowered what a year ago looked like frontrunner status for Ariana Grande in Best Supporting Actress.
Well, Grande is still definitely getting in for Best Supporting Actress (where she won’t win), and there is an argument that this still quite popular musical blockbuster sneaks into the Best Picture race based purely on the success of its box office and goodwill to the last movie. If we were putting down money, we’d obviously give the nudge to the above two films, but recognize that Wicked will still benefit from Ari’s nomination, as well as a slew of technical nods that include Best Costume Design, Production Design, Hair and Makeup, and Best Original Song.

The Secret Agent
Another international favorite of Cannes, there are plenty of prognosticators who will tell you Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian period piece thriller is getting into the Best Picture race. I don’t see it since the top race already has two foreign-language films all but locked in. With that said, the element that keeps winning The Secret Agent awards, from Cannes to the New York Film Critics Circle, is Wagner Moura’s lead performance and that will be where the film probably gets recognized by the Academy, though even that could be challenged. I’d place him in the fifth (vulnerable) slot, with Edgerton in the wings and on the bubble. Do absolutely count on a Best International Film nomination though.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Now we’re getting into films that will not be nominated for Best Picture but could dominate in other categories. In the instance of Mary Bronstein’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, that is represented by a stunning tour de force by Rose Byrne as a mother dealing with everything terrible about being a parent happening all at once… if only in her own mind. It’s a high-wire act of a turn that has impressively won nearly every major critics group prize thus far and is hence the de facto frontrunner going into the industry awards. My instincts suggest this movie is too peculiar and mean for general Academy tastes, however, which is why I’d give the edge to Buckley in Hamnet. Nevertheless, I’d be happy to be wrong since Byrne gives the performance of the year.

Blue Moon
Another film that will get a lot of attention for a specific performance is Richard Linklater’s wistful and lovely Blue Moon, a tragicomic toast of Scotch to underrated musical wordsmith Lorenz Hart. It features arguably the best performance of Ethan Hawke’s career, and one which I’m a little surprised hasn’t gained more traction with awards voters. It will probably be nominated in the “fourth” slot for Best Actor though.

Weapons
One more film that will likely get a lonely Oscar nomination is the supremely entertaining horror-ish mystery film, Weapons. While the movie is marketed around Josh Brolin and Julia Garner, it’s a surprise and unrecognizable appearance by Amy Madigan that has left audiences speechless. She’s so good that she absolutely will get a Best Supporting Actress nomination, although given the movie’s horror status, I do not buy the fan theories about her winning. The film might also earn a Best Original Screenplay nomination, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

KPop Demon Hunters
Sorry BLINK and Huntr/x nation, KPop Demon Hunters will not be nominated for Best Picture. However, the Sony Pictures Animation project, and Netflix release, will probably win Best Animated Feature as well as Best Original Song, courtesy of “Golden.”

No Other Choice
While No Other Choice is one of my personal favorites of the year, it pains me to admit the Academy is unlikely to agree about Park Chan-wook’s dark comedy/thriller. This parable about an upper-middle class paper executive in Korea, who discovers he will literally kill to escape unemployment and the loss of his family’s creature comforts, has more than a touch of Hitchcock about it. But that means it’s just genre enough to not appeal to traditional AMPAS tastes, at least when it comes to above the line categories. Still expect it to be nominated for Best International Film and (hopefully) Best Adapted Screenplay.

The Smashing Machine
Benny Safdie is a great filmmaker. He co-directed one of the best movies of this century with his brother Josh when they made Uncut Gems together. So it’s a bit tough to admit that Marty Supreme has wholly overshadowed Benny’s own solo act in The Smashing Machine, an introspective (and at times unfortunately inert) character study about an MMA fighter named Mark Kerr. Dwayne Johnson is campaigning hard for a Best Actor nomination and he is good in the movie. Meanwhile Emily Blunt is even better as Kerr’s volcanic girlfriend Dawn Staples. It’s unlikely either will be nominated though after Smashing’s muted reception with both critics and ticket-buyers. With that said, it should earn a Best Hair and Makeup nod for Johnson’s physical transformation.

Jay Kelly
Marriage Story’s Noah Bamubach made a movie about Hollywood royalty George Clooney playing what seems like a version of himself (and maybe a few of his fellow movie star pals) in Jay Kelly. On paper this should be an Oscar darling. In practice it most definitely is not.

A House of Dynamite
Another Netflix release from one of Oscars’ favorite filmmakers, Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite premiered on the streaming service with maximum fanfare. Alas, this heavy-handed and hammy PSA will quite possibly get no nominations.

Die, My Love
Jennifer Lawrence is a favorite of the Academy. But Rose Byrne and Mary Bronstein’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You tackled similar material to Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love and, we’d argue, did it better. It seems many agree since Byrne’s ascent means Die, My Love is getting snubbed.

After the Hunt
Julia Roberts reportedly turned down Marty Supreme and instead made After the Hunt, an anti-cancel culture movie from regular awards darling Luca Guadagnino. Unfortunately for them, Tár did the same thing much better three years ago. Whoops.












































