The Game Awards 2023: Winner Predictions For Every Major Category

Since the decline (and apparent death) of E3, The Game Awards have become gaming’s biggest yearly event. While that’s partially due to the major reveals and announcements that have quickly come to define the modern era of the show, The Game Awards are obviously still about honoring the best games and creators of the year. So far as that goes, The Game Awards jury certainly has their work cut out for them this year.

After all, 2023 has been one of the best years in gaming history in terms of the sheer number of quality titles that have been released thus far. Not only have we been treated to a surprisingly high number of modern masterpieces this year, but those games cover such a surprising amount of ground in terms of their genres, style, and accomplishments. As such, it’s proving to be surprisingly difficult to even try to predict which games will take home which awards this year.

While I’m obviously still going to take a crack at doing just that, please note that these are only predictions. I have no knowledge of which way the votes are going, and in many cases, I’m predicting the games I think will win rather than the ones that I want to win. If you’re interested in that information, you’ll have to wait for our own Game of the Year awards.

Also, you’ll notice that these predictions do not include the nominees for the Esports and Content Creator categories due to a complete lack of personal interest.

Game of the Year

Alan Wake 2 

Baldur’s Gate 3 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 

Resident Evil 4 

Super Mario Bros. Wonder 

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 

Like many Game of the Year 2023 races, this award will likely go to one of two viable candidates: Tears of the Kingdom and Baldur’s Gate 3. Pushing aside the merits of both games (we’ll discuss those merits during our own GotY awards), I think Baldur’s Gate 3 will end up grabbing The Game Awards’ biggest prize this year.

That prediction is largely based on Breath of the Wild’s big night at The Game Awards 2017. No, Tears of the Kingdom shouldn’t be “punished” for its predecessor’s success, and yes, Tears is the better game in many ways. Still, precedent could still be a factor. The simple idea that Nintendo has already been honored for some of Tears’ core concepts may be enough to give Baldur’s Gate 3 the edge in what could be a historically close race.

For what it’s worth, games that appeal to a slightly more “hardcore” audience have also done very well at The Game Awards in recent years. Granted, that success has been largely limited to FromSoftware’s works (Elden Ring and Sekiro both took home GotY), but a higher barrier to entry doesn’t necessarily seem to be a deal breaker. So while Tears of the Kingdom has an obvious path to victory, I think that Baldur’s Gate 3’s comparative outsider status could actually be an advantage in this instance. 

If there is a situation where those two games end up splitting the vote wide enough to open a lane for a third contender, then I think Alan Wake 2 could actually take this award home. It generated a ton of buzz late in the year, it’s from an acclaimed studio that doesn’t always get a lot of love, it’s a pure passion project, and it’s really, really good. It’s a genuinely interesting dark horse candidate. 

Best Game Direction

Alan Wake 2 

Baldur’s Gate 3 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2

Super Mario Bros. Wonder 

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 

Historically, The Game Awards typically gives the Best Direction award to whichever title wins Game of the Year. One of the most notable exceptions to that trend occurred in 2019 when Hideo Kojima took home Best Director for Death Stranding while Sekiro snagged GotY. That instance suggested that a notable enough name in this category could distinguish themselves as a breakout candidate.

Interestingly, that was also a year in which there wasn’t an obvious GotY winner and the vote was ultimately split between a few major candidates. All of that information leads me to believe that Sam Lake and Alan Wake 2 could actually take this award home. Kojima and Lake have also both been present at The Game Awards in recent years, which further suggests that 2023 could be a repeat of 2019.

However, I ultimately think Baldur’s Gate 3 likely takes this award home by virtue of its likely GotY win. After all, if Red Dead Redemption 2 and God of War couldn’t split these awards in 2018, then I don’t think that Tears of the Kingdom and Baldur’s Gate 3 will split them this year. And while there is a path for Alan Wake 2 to pull off a sneaky win here, I think that conventional wisdom (and general confusion) regarding the purpose of this award will be enough to seal Baldur’s Gate 3’s victory. 

Best Narrative

Alan Wake 2 

Baldur’s Gate 3 

Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty

Final Fantasy XVI 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 

This is a very tough award to predict. In fact, it might be the toughest winner to predict this year. 

This may come down to what voters choose to do with Phantom Liberty and Badlur’s Gate 3. Phantom Liberty’s story is exceptional…but it’s built upon the controversial (and uneven) Cyberpunk 2077 main story and it’s limited to the size and scope of the DLC.  Baldur’s Gate 3, meanwhile, offers an all-time impressive RPG narrative that may strangely suffer from its many twisting paths and story possibilities. Granted, Disco Elysium won this award in the past, but we’ve typically seen it go to slightly more straightforward and cinematic stories. 

As such, Alan Wake 2 seems like the strongest candidate here. Its story is phenomenal (and arguably the game’s biggest draw), it’s more traditionally cinematic, and this award does sometimes go to the “other” GotY contender that isn’t likely to take home the top price. With Tears of the Kingdom not in the running this year, that opens a clear path for Alan Wake 2. 

Best Art Direction

Alan Wake 2 

Hi-Fi Rush 

Lies of P  

Super Mario Bros. Wonder

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 

This is always such an odd category. There are years when it seems to stealthily be the “best looking” game category. That’s especially true in the recent era of the show. Historically, though, the award often goes to slightly smaller games that exhibit a unique or distinctive style that exists outside of the Triple-A space. 

With that precedent in mind, I think Hi-Fi Rush actually upsets its bigger competitors in this instance. It’s not only deserving of the honor, but its surprising number of nominations in other categories seemingly confirms that quite a few people on the voting committee love it dearly. 

The other interesting names in this category are Alan Wake 2 and Tears of the Kingdom. While Remedy’s Control did previously win this award, I think Alan Wake 2’s wins will come elsewhere. As for Tears of the Kingdom, the fact that this was one of the few awards that Breath of the Wild didn’t win in 2017 leads me to believe that Tears faces a surprisingly uphill battle in this category this year.

Best Score and Music

Alan Wake 2 (Composer Petri Alanko) 

Baldur’s Gate 3 (Composer Borislav Slavov) 

Final Fantasy XVI (Composer Masayoshi Soken) 

Hi-Fi Rush (Audio Director Shuichi Kobori)J

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (Composed by Nintendo Sound Team) 

This is an absolutely stacked category filled with worthy contenders and clear favorites that are certainly well-represented elsewhere. However, my vote goes to a game I don’t have winning any other awards: Final Fantasy 16. 

Just to be clear, this is certainly not a simple sympathy vote. Even by this franchise’s considerable standards, Final Fantasy 16’s soundtrack is truly exceptional. Though some balk at its slightly less “traditional” nature, I think that it deserves to be in any conversation about the best Final Fantasy soundtracks ever. It’s a stunning piece of work that gives the game so much of its energy and identity. The boss battle themes alone may be good enough to take this award home. 

However, when you factor in the brutal competition that FF 16 faces in every other category…well, yes, I do think that is where the sympathy votes start to roll in and ultimately push this game over the top. 

Best Audio Design

Alan Wake 2 

Dead Space 

Hi-Fi Rush 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 

Resident Evil 4 

This has long been one of The Game Awards’ most confusing categories. A wide range of titles have won this award in the past, and some of those winners have been…questionable, to say the least. The only consistent trend I can spot is the idea that games with audio design elements that most obviously impact the gameplay tend to have an advantage in this category. 

So, I’m going to give Hi-Fi Rush the nod in this instance, even though I strongly suspect that the game won’t end up winning two audio awards. If “impact on gameplay” is a major deciding factor, though, then you certainly can’t overlook the qualifications of a game with combat that quite literally plays to the beat of that title’s stellar soundtrack. 

Dead Space is another interesting contender in this category along the same lines, but I tend to predict that original games will win over remakes (even exceptional remakes) where possible. 

Best Performance

Ben Starr as Clive Rosfield (Final Fantasy XVI)

Cameron Monaghan as Cal Kestis (Star Wars Jedi: Survivor)

Idris Elba as Solomon Reed (Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty)

Melanie Liburd as Saga Anderson (Alan Wake 2)

Neil Newbon as Astarion (Baldur’s Gate 3)

Yuri Lowenthal as Peter Parker ()Marvel’s Spider-Man 2)

This is honestly kind of an odd collection of nominees. It seems like the voters really wanted to spread the love to as many games as possible, which means that some worthy candidates in both Baldur’s Gate 3 and Alan Wake 2 didn’t make the cut. 

Ultimately, I think this category will be a test of how celebrity/mainstream-obsessed The Game Awards are. If they haven’t quite gotten past that point in their existence, then I think that Idris Elba will win this award. Does he deserve it? Well…it’s a fine performance, but I think that Neil Newbon and Melanie Liburd are stronger overall candidates. In this particular instance, I’m leaning towards Newbon due to both my personal preferences and the idea that Newbon’s win will be a nod toward the entire Baldur’s Gate 3 cast.

Innovation in Accessibility

Diablo IV 

Forza Motorsport 

Hi-Fi Rush 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 

Mortal Kombat 1 

Street Fighter 6

There are some notable candidates in this category, but I think Forza Motorsport wins this in a landslide. That game’s accessibility options are so extensive that they include a mode that allows vision-impaired gamers to compete in races. That’s going to be tough to beat. 

Games for Impact

A Space for the Unbound 

Chants of Sennaar 

Goodbye Volcano High 

Tchia 

Terra Nil 

Venba 

Baldur’s Gate 3

It’s usually pretty difficult to quantify “Impact” when it comes to this particular reward, so I will give a nod to Goodbye Volcano High. Its focus on LGBT characters and topics was the source of tremendous “controversy” among the usual suspects, and it’s arguably the best-received game in this category overall (outside of Baldur’s Gate 3, of course, which will almost certainly grab its wins elsewhere). 

Best Ongoing Game

Apex Legends

Cyberpunk 2077 

Final Fantasy XIV 

Fortnite 

Genshin Impact

Cyberpunk 2077’s nomination here is…bizarre. I’m a big fan of the 2.0 update and Phantom Liberty, but I just fail to see how Cyberpunk 2077 is being considered an ongoing game in the same ways these other titles were clearly designed to be ongoing games. I don’t know if we’ve ever seen another title in a similar situation be nominated for this particular award.

While its nomination here means that enough people clearly feel differently, I still think this award goes to Final Fantasy 14. Even though there wasn’t a new Final Fantasy 14 expansion released this year, the game still enjoyed a number of notable updates that helped solidify it as arguably the best MMORPG on the market (and one of the best Final Fantasy games ever). 

Best Community Support

Baldur’s Gate 3 

Cyberpunk 2077 

Destiny 2

Final Fantasy XIV 

No Man’s Sky 

Unlike Best Ongoing Game, I do see the argument for Cyberpunk 2077 being in this category. I have concerns about its nomination, but I do think it is eligible given the sheer number of updates that Cyberpunk 2077 received this year. 

Since these are my predictions and not my personal votes, though, I think Cyberpunk 2077 grabs the win here. With the exception of Baldur’s Gate 3 (another somewhat odd candidate in this category), no other nominee in this category received more substantial updates than Cyberpunk 2077. Voters may be split on this one, but I suspect that Cyberpunk 2077 will have enough support. 

Best Independent Game

Cocoon 

Dave the Diver 

Dredge 

Sea of Stars 

Viewfinder

Dave the Diver would have been my guess for this category, but given the controversies surrounding that game’s eligibility, I’m not sure if it will have the support needed to go over the top. It may depend on when the votes were cast vs. when that controversy hit, but I think it will ultimately fall out of the running. 

Instead, I think Cocoon grabs the win here. It’s an exceptional experience that most certainly qualifies as an indie title. It’s also a pure passion project that represents the spirit of this award in terms of the work that went into it and how it exists on the margins of the Triple-A scene. 

Best Debut Indie Game

Cocoon 

Dredge 

Pizza Tower 

Venba

Viewfinder 

In the brief time that the Best Independent Game award and this award have existed, the same game has one both. While I hate to go against that kind of precedent when making predictions, I find Pizza Tower’s nomination to be too fascinating to ignore. 

Pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to in the games media industry (which makes up the majority of the voting jury for these awards) has professed their love for Pizza Tower. While I’m a little surprised it didn’t get a nomination for Best Independent Game, I think that the chance to award that title here will be too tempting to pass up on. Of course, that wonderful Wario Land-like title more than deserves to take home some gold. 

Best Mobile Game

Final Fantasy VII: Ever Crisis 

Hello Kitty Island Adventure 

Honkai: Star Rail 

Monster Hunter Now 

Terra Nil 

I don’t have a horse in this particular race, nor can I begin to predict which way the voters may swing on this one. I’ll go with Honkai: Star Rail by virtue of the buzz it has garnered, but it’s a real toss-up. 

Best VR/AR Game

Gran Turismo 7 

Humanity 

Horizon Call of the Mountain 

Resident Evil Village VR Mode

Synapse 

Much like Best Mobile Game, I can’t really pretend that this is a category near my heart or in my wheelhouse. That being the case, I’ll go with Horizon due to the name value and the quality of the experience, but Synapse and Humanity are certainly noteworthy contenders. 

Best Action Game

Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon 

Dead Island 2 

Ghostrunner 2 

Hi-Fi Rush 

Remnant 2

I love the fact that this category consists entirely of games not nominated for Game of the Year. That makes this a seemingly wide-open category that could go to a number of notable nominees that may not win any other awards.

That said, I think that this is Armored Core’s award to lose. FromSoftware has obviously enjoyed a history of success at The Game Awards, and Armored Core is probably the best game of 2023 that isn’t well represented elsewhere at The Game Awards. Remnant 2 would get my personal vote, but Armored Core 6 is the obvious leader of this pack.

Best Action/Adventure Game

Alan Wake 2 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 

Resident Evil 4 

Star Wars Jedi: Survivor 

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 

Unlike the Best Action Game category, the nominees for this award are certainly well-represented elsewhere. Deservedly so, but that does complicate my prediction in terms of how wins elsewhere may impact the winner of this award. 

However, I think that Tears of the Kingdom will still win this award one way or another. While that’s partially based on the fact that I currently have Baldur’s Gate 3 winning so many other major awards that Tears of the Kingdom is in contention for, I do think that it’s the game that best represents this category. Granted, that does mean that Resident Evil 4 and Alan Wake 2 may continue to struggle to secure wins at this year’s show. 

Best RPG

Baldur’s Gate 3 

Final Fantasy XVI

Lies of P 

Sea of Stars 

Starfield

Again, I think there is a world in which Tears of the Kingdom takes some of the awards that I currently have going to Baldurs’ Gate 3 (including Game of the Year). That said, Baldur’s Gate 3 will win this race by a mile no matter what happens elsewhere. This is basically a free prediction and one of the only guarantees at this year’s show.  

Best Fighting Game

God of Rock

Mortal Kombat 1 

Nickelodeon All-Star Brawl 2 

Pocket Bravery 

Street Fighter 6 

This is actually a very competitive category that is obviously highlighted by Mortal Kombat and Street Fighter’s considerable presence. Ultimately, though, I think Street Fighter 6 comfortably secures this win.

In terms of MK 1 vs. Street Fighter 6, I think that the general consensus is that MK 1 is very good but perhaps not quite on the level of recent MK games (and certainly not too far above them). Street Fighter 6, meanwhile, is an absolute triumph of fighting game design that may very well be one of the best Street Fighter games ever. Street Fighter 6 could have (maybe should have) been nominated for Game of the Year. It will almost certainly win this award, though. 

Best Family Game

Disney Illusion Island 

Party Animals 

Pikmin 4 

Sonic Superstars 

Super Mario Bros. Wonder

This is a genuinely interesting category that features both heavy hitters and titles not seen elsewhere. In this case, I think the heaviest of those hitters ends up snagging the win. 

There is a very good chance that Super Mario Bros. Wonder may end up missing out on every other award despite its GotY nomination. Even if that does happen, though, I think it will go home with this one. It’s not quite as specifically family-oriented as some of the other nominees, but it is an incredible Super Mario game that is more of a “for everyone” type of experience rather than a “for kids” type of game. 

Best Sim/Strategy Game

Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp 

Cities: Skylines II 

Company of Heroes 3

Fire Emblem Engage 

Pikmin 4

In some ways, I do see this as a race between Pikmin 4 and Fire Emblem Engage. The other candidates certainly aren’t straw men, but those are the two nominees that stand out in terms of their clearly positive critical reception. 

Ultimately, though, I think it goes to Pikmin 4. It’s not only arguably the best Pikmin game yet, but the Pikmin series has always been a fan-favorite franchise that just doesn’t ever seem to get enough love. Giving that game this award would certainly help to close the gap a bit in terms of its popular reception. Pikmin’s dormancy compared to Fire Emblem’s relative prevalence in recent years may also be enough to give it an edge in the voting. 

Best Sports/Racing

EA Sports FC 24 

F1 23 

Forza Motorsport 

Hot Wheels Unleashed 2: Turbocharged 

The Crew Motorfest 

This is probably the second easiest prediction of the show. EA Sports FC 24 might have more support than I’m giving it credit for, but I think that Forza Motorsport will be too tough to deny. It’s an incredible entry in an amazing franchise. 

Best Multiplayer (Presented by Discord)

Baldur’s Gate 3

Diablo IV 

Party Animals 

Street Fighter 6

Super Mario Bros. Wonder 

This is a strange selection of candidates that really shows just how diverse this category can be. While I find Diablo 4, Baldur’s Gate 3, and Super Mario Bros. Wonder to all be fantastic outside-the-box candidates, it’s hard to deny Street Fighter 6’s credentials. 

At the very least, Street Fighter 6’s multiplayer is an extension of the exceptional gameplay that the core title has to offer. While Baldur’s Gate 3, Diablo 4, and Super Mario Bros. Wonder certainly intrigue me due to their welcome couch co-op options, Street Fighter 6’s more traditional competitive qualities may be too strong to overlook. 

Best Adaptation

Castlevania: Nocturne

Gran Turismo 

The Last of Us 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Twisted Metal

I’m stunned by how competitive this category is. Granted, Gran Turismo and Twisted Metal have no chance of winning, but Castlevania, The Last of Us, and Super Mario are all shockingly strong candidates. Of course, this will likely come down to Super Mario and The Last of Us. 

Even then, I’m 90% confident that this will go to The Last of Us. Super Mario was a blast, but The Last of Us is legitimately in contention for awards much bigger (commercially speaking) than The Game Awards. I think that The Game Awards voters will be more than happy to honor what may be the best drama of the year. 

Most Anticipated Game

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth 

Hades II 

Like A Dragon: Infinite Wealth

Star Wars Outlaws 

Tekken 8 

This is a fun category that lacks some of the names that would obviously win this award (GTA 6 or the Elden Ring DLC, to name a couple) if they were eligible. However, I still think that the biggest name on this list ends up taking the award home. 

The hype around Final Fantasy VII Rebirth continues to grow as we near the game’s 2024 release. What was already going to be one of next year’s most anticipated games reached new levels of popularity thanks to some of Rebirth’s recent previews. Granted, there is a chance that the previous remake’s somewhat mixed reception (as well as Final Fantasy 16’s somewhat mixed reception) could sour the anticipation for that title a little bit. If that does happen, then I think Hades 2 actually takes this award.