I’m a Statistician. More of a Researcher than a Logopolian, you understand. But put simply, I work with stats for a living. Sometimes this gets a little boring and so one’s mind gets diverted. As it did the other day with all of the “Who’ll Be The New Who?” wonderment.
So I decided to combine my interest – Doctor Who – with my job: numbers.
I wondered whether it would be possible to calculate, by using stats and figures, Who the next Doctor will be.
This is entering Logopolis territory actually, isn’t it? And no, don’t sneer. And please, don't head for the doors - I'm not done yet! And I can even tell you when the next Doctor’s first episode will air!
Ah, that got your attention, didn't it? And also the attention of, I fear, one or two mental health workers.
But hear me out. We all know that the Universe is based on numbers and, if you’ve read this far, I believe that you’re credulous enough to believe that a sci-fi programme is, too.
There are three main figures that are important to each Doctor. When they were born. When their first episode was aired. And when their final episode was aired. We have all of this information for each of the Ten Doctors thus far. Well, except Tennant’s final episode. But we can even calculate that, so let’s start there.
Right. We take the dates of each Doctor’s final episode’s first airing date. So, that’s the last episode of Tenth Planet, War Games, Planet of the Spiders, Logopolis, Caves of Androzani, Trial of a Timelord, and Parting of the Ways. McGann’s sole outing gets counted here, and for McCoy I’ve gone with Survival. Not Dimensions in Time. Or the TV Movie. Well, not for now, anyway.
So we plug all of that data into our lovely spreadsheet and it tells us that the average gap between one Doctor’s finale and another’s is 1764 days. That’s almost five years. So, apparently, Tennant’s last appearance will be 1764 days after Parting of the Ways, on 17th April 2010. So he survives the 2009 specials and ‘hands over’ in 2010? Sounds feasible enough.
By the same calculations, 1764 days after Tennant’s last appearance is 14th February 2015. So that’s when The Eleventh Doctor will be hanging up their TARDIS key. Happy Valentine’s Day!
So, by Tennant’s finale, he’s had four years and five months (less one day) in the TARDIS. That’s just five days less than Jon Pertwee.
So, when does Tennant’s successor begin their reign in the TARDIS? Again, we can type each Doctor’s first episode into our spreadsheet and get our average which, this time, is 1704 days. Which takes us to 19th July 2010. Which is, admittedly, a slightly odd date, but hey, I didn’t promise a 100% success rate!
This gives Tennant’s successor a very long serving four years and seven months in the TARDIS. A very respectable length of service.
But who will it be? And how do we solve it by stats?
The answer is simple(ish). Plug the dates of birth of each of our ten Time Lords into your spreadsheet and, again, get the average time between one being born and the next (don’t worry, the Troughton/Pertwee and Baker/Davison minus numbers are taken into account). The average span between one Doctor being born and the next turns out to be 2568 days, which is just over seven years. Which means that, by adding 2568 to Tennant’s own birthdate of 18th April 1971, we end up with 28th April 1978.
Who might that be? Well, bung in 28th April into Wikipedia and get your list of famous people born on this date. There's only one entry for 1978. And that is the internationally reknowned DJ, television host, singer/songwriter and all round excellent person, one Ms. Lauren Laverne, currently the host of the Culture Show, and formerly the lead singer in the wonderful and late-lamented Kenickie.
What are your odds on that then, William Hill?
Logopolians (and the ‘Female Doctor’ brigade), put your bets on now!
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By atheistgirl 1 November 3, 2008 10:42:57 AM
Drat! I was born a year too early.
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By TVDust1 1 November 3, 2008 10:46:25 AM
That is demented genius... As would be Ms. Laverne in the lead role. Fantastic.
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By kivel 1 November 3, 2008 01:47:11 PM
I am one of those MENTAL HEALTH WORKERS. It sounds crazy enough to me I'll buy in, however I need something explained.
If a Doctor's TARDIS time is 5 years and his successor is 7 years his junior; doesn't the Doctor emplode in less then 5 incarnations.
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By RonHogan 1 November 3, 2008 01:54:03 PM
My head hurts now.
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By Headache2112 1 November 3, 2008 10:59:16 PM
I just came up with this yesterday. It ties in with the topic at hand. Here's my theory as to why David Morrissey has already been cast as the 11th Doctor. Here is my theory, and this is how my theory goes. Ahem. 1. Somewhere in the middle of 4th season filming (and while scripts are still being written) Tennant secretly tells RTD that he's leaving. RTD already knows that he himself will be leaving. He also knows that Steven Moffat will be taking over.
2. RTD and SM begin looking for the 11th Doctor for the - regularly scheduled - 5th season.
3. RTD and SM meet with David Morrissey. Morrissey tentatively agrees to the role.
4. RTD writes "The Stolen Earth" in which the 10th Doctor regenerates into the 11th. However, as this is part of the 4th season episodes, Morrissey is merely signed to a "one episode" contract. His full year(s) contract will be worked out at a later time.
5. RTD writes "Journey's End" believing Morrissey will portray the 11th Doctor in it.
6. Morrissey is approached to star in "Nineteen Eighty" and "Nineteen Eighty Three" which are parts 2 and 3 in a trilogy, of which "Nineteen Seventy Four" will film first. But all three movies will film in 2009.
7. Morrissey tells RTD and SM that he will not be able to take the role of the 11th Doctor as doing so will conflict with an acting job which he has been guaranteed.
8. RTD, SM and the BBC really, REALLY want Morrissey to follow Tennant. All parties agree to sort things out.
9. While Morrissey won't be available in 2009, it becomes apparent that Tennant will be available BETWEEN other brand new commitments.
10. RTD and SM hit upon the idea of a "shortened" 2009 season of Doctor Who "Specials".
11. RTD asks Tennant to film the 2009 specials when he's available. Tennant says "Alrighty."
12. RTD and SM ask Morrissey not to commit to other projects past 2009.
13. RTD realizes that "Journey's End" will have to be rewritten so that the 10th Doctor lives. (This messes up his plan to have Rose and the secondary-10th Doctor live happily ever after. Had the 10th regenerated into the 11th as originally written, Rose would have had more solid reason to have wanted to stay with the secondary-10th Doctor.)
14. As Morrissey is already signed for that "one episode," that episode will have to film immediately after "Journey's End" finishes filming. RTD realizes what a complete and utter TEASE it would be to have Morrissey guest star in an episode titled, "The Next Doctor." It really all works out so beautifully.
15. Tennant agrees to be secretive about his departure from the show to add to the viewer's curiosity (and worry!) It all works beautifully.
16. Catherine Tate, not knowing it's all a big secret, mentions that David Tennant will be leaving DW. RTD and SM get her on the phone immediately. CT changes her story.
17. The BBC says it is in contract talks with Tennant to continue in the role. It's all part of the plan to throw everyone off the track. The BBC is actually in contract talks with David Morrissey. David Morrissey signs a three-year contract, but it's kept under wraps.
18. David Tennant announces, just two months prior to the airing of "The Next Doctor" that he is leaving Doctor Who after he films the specials.
(WE’RE ENTERING THE FUTURE NOW...)
19. The first two minutes of "The Next Doctor" are screened for a waiting nation - and world.
20. DW viewers everywhere - not just those who log onto DW websites - wonder if David Morrissey is indeed the "next" Doctor, or if his Doctor is "the Doctor" from a parallel Universe, or if he's just a normal doctor or if he's not even the "doctor" that the title is referring to.
21. Shortly thereafter, perhaps around December 11th, 2008, the BBC announces that David Morrissey will portray the 11th Doctor and filming on his episodes will begin late-2009, after he has finished filming "Nineteen Eighty Three".
22. "Doctor Who - The Next Doctor" receives astronomical ratings - more than any previous Christmas DW episode - because EVERYONE wants to tune in to see not just the NEW - make that NEXT - Doctor, but they want to see him alongside the Doctor that's on his way out.
It all makes so much sense!
Except that I'm probably completely, absolutely, entirely, utterly, hopelessly wrong.
It’s fun to speculate though! Isn’t it? Oh, and all brontosauruses are thin at one end, much thicker in the middle and then thin again at the far end. (However, this theory about brontosauruses is owned by someone else.)
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By twosheds 1 November 4, 2008 11:34:41 AM
This is possibly the geekiest thing ever published at Den Of Geek. Hurrah!
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By kivel 1 November 4, 2008 07:19:23 PM
Headach,
Wow you can write all my conspiracy theories, so intricate and twisting.
Just please explain River Song. SM created River Song and created a long standing relationship between her and the 10th doctor. If DT was already gone by the time River Song was created why bother. Maybe just for books. but since your my new king of conspiracies, please explain. again please understand i am awestruck by your theory either you mind is amazing or you have way too much time on your hands
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By Headache2112 1 November 4, 2008 11:29:56 PM
Kivel: River Song will become the wife of the secondary-10th Doctor after he escapes from the parallel Universe. (He's ticked to have been stuck there in the first place. As far as HE'S concerned, HE IS the Doctor and he wants to get back to HIS Universe and continue exploring, discovering and annoying.) Rose is fine with his leaving as he's got all that icky Donna Noble DNA-ey stuff in him. The Doctor never tells River Song about him not being THEE Doctor and since the Doctor she encounters in her future (in "Silence/Forest") looks just like her own Doctor (again he's the secondary-10th Doctor) she can't - and has no reason to - tell the difference. There. How's that for EVEN MORE geeky conspiracy theories?!
Re: Doctor Who: why Lauren Laverne is the next Doctor
Posted By kivel 1 November 5, 2008 06:50:58 PM
headache, WOW lol great
your the Geek
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